IES2008-A001

Evolution of System Performance Forecasting Systems

John M. Goodman
Radio Propagation Services, Inc.

Abstract

There has been a rich history of ionospheric prediction and forecasting systems. Crude prediction 
methods for use in specifying the best frequencies for shortwave radio communication were developed 
during and following WW2, and rather sophisticated computer methods were developed in the 1960s and 
1970s. With the launch of satellites and the development of mini-computers came the first transportable 
forecasting systems that provided quasi-real-time estimates of communication parameters. This paper 
traces the development of real-time systems for forecasting ionospheric behavior, including systems 
that exploit climatological tendencies as updated by current measurements, and other data-driven 
approaches that involve disturbance modeling, Kalman filter methods, neural networks, persistence, 
recurrence, and so on. Finally we shall identify current methods that make use of the Internet for 
providing services to both specific and generic customers. Some of these systems provide general 
support to a wide spectrum of communication systems users, while others provide tailored products 
to a limited set of users. The former class of systems is typically developed by government 
organizations and provides the service without charge, while the latter class provides the service 
for a fee. The paper will conclude with an assessment of the direction of forecasting technology growth.